After weeks of rampant speculation, the Rudy Gay dilemma has finally been resolved. Like many in the sports media predicted, the Memphis Grizzlies swung a mid-season trade that sent Gay to the Toronto Raptors this past Wednesday, along with third-string center Hamed Haddadi. In return the Grizz received budding second-year forward Ed Davis and veteran point guard Jose Calderon, along with a 2013 second rounder. They then flipped Calderon and his expiring deal to the Detroit Pistons for a pair of wings in Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye.
The Grizzlies have been in cost-cutting mode this season, spearheaded by a new ownership and front office. Though GM Chris Wallace remains as a holdover, there have been rumors that he hasn't had much of a hand in the recent deals, including the trade with the Cleveland Cavaliers that dumped Marreese Speights, Josh Selby, and Wayne Ellington. One has to imagine that former ESPN writer and analytics specialist John Hollinger, who was hired to be Vice President of Basketball Operations in Memphis, has had a strong influence on recent roster choices. It seems as though ownership doesn't believe this team has the right pieces to contend both now and in the long-term. And with over $51 million potentially tied up between just Gay, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol through 2015, along with harsher tax penalties, it's hard to blame them.
The Toronto Raptors are in another boat completely. After a disappointing start to what was supposed to be a hopeful season, GM Bryan Colangelo has his eye on immediate improvement, while (probably) sacrificing some long-term potential. It remains to be seen if Gay, a fringe All-Star, can improve the Raps enough to make the playoffs, but one has to like their chances a lot more now. They're currently sitting at 16-30, just 6 and a half games out of the eighth spot, occupied by the now Rondo-less Celtics. In addition to the Gay acquisition, the Raptors have solved their point guard dilemma between Calderon and Kyle Lowry. The former was preferred by the coaching staff for his steadiness and methodical playmaking, while the latter was ownership's preference. But now Lowry is their guy, which is promising as he is younger, more athletic, and tougher than Calderon (not to mention good friends with Gay).
Detroit snuck is as the third team in this deal, nabbing Calderon for lifelong Pistons Prince and Daye. While Calderon will certainly help in the short term, serving as a veteran presence and mentor for young point Brandon Knight, the real value lies in his expiring deal. If the Pistons amnesty 2009 free-agent mistake Charlie Villanueva this summer, they're primed to have about $30 million in cap space this off-season. They can use this space to take back salary in future deals, or throw money at prominent free-agents-to-be like Josh Smith or Al Jefferson, who are more realistic hauls than A-listers like Chris Paul and Dwight Howard. Whatever the Pistons decide to do, there's nothing wrong with some extra flexibility, especially since the roster didn't get markedly worse. As long as they don't strike out by overpaying decent players ala 2009, the future looks promising.
So Who Won?
Like any trade, we're not going to know the answer to this for a while. Probably not until the start of the 2013-14 season, when we can look at how the teams fared for the remainder of this season and in the off-season. Still, we can speculate and make educated guesses on who made out the best and the worst.
But strangely, this trade doesn't have any party that stands out as clear victors. Usually the team that gets the best player in the deal wins, but should the Raptors be celebrated if for the next couple years they squeeze into lower playoff seeds and get ousted in the first or second round? That sure is what it looks like. As good as Rudy Gay is, he's not a superstar. Neither is anyone else on the Raptors. He's still young enough where he could develop into one, but that's not a sure bet. A more likely scenario is that the Raptors turn into the Joe Johnson-era Hawks, a team that was pretty good, but never serious title threats. They'll have two fringe All-Stars in Gay and Lowry, along with some other solid players like Andrea Bargnani and DeMar DeRozan. The Raptors are still young and have other enigmas like Terrence Ross and Jonas Valanciunas, but its difficult to imagine them as anything more than a treadmill team without making another big move. And everybody knows that a treadmill team is the worst position for a franchise; too good to get good draft picks, and too bad to contend.
The Pistons could potentially come out on top in this deal, but that entirely depends on how they spend their ever-growing cap space. Their track record isn't great in this regard, as I mentioned with the 2009 off-season, but they don't really have anywhere to go but up. In the meantime, Calderon should help bring stability to the lineup and keep the team competing. Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond are poised to get better looks inside with Calderon running the show, and Knight could stand to learn a thing or two in terms of playing with patience and setting teammates up. And don't count the Pistons out of the playoffs either; they're a game up on the Raptors and have looked pretty good in flashes.
That leaves us with the Grizzlies. Unfortunately, if I had to pick a loser of this trade it would have to be them. But I could very well be wrong, depending on both how Tayshaun Prince fills their now wide-open SF slot, and how Ed Davis develops behind Randolph. From a purely basketball perspective, it's hard to see Memphis better without Gay. He was their best scorer, most athletic wing, and only reliable shot-creator outside of Mike Conley Jr. He has hit some game-winners for them and proven himself as clutch-time producer. Having Gay on the wing broke the monotony of Randolph and Gasol post-ups, something the Grizzlies will need to rely on more in his absence. While Prince is a solid player in his own right, he doesn't bring a lot of what the Grizzlies need, primarily outside shooting and shot-creating. Prince's 43% from 3PT range is impressive on paper, but hes only making one every other game. Rudy only hits 31%, but he makes one a game and shoots more often, forcing defenses to come out of the lane more. Prince's low-volume offensive game used to be partnered with great perimeter defense, but he seems to have fallen off a bit in that regard. While he will help against the LeBrons and Durants of the world, he's not an ace defender anymore. The other new Grizzly, Ed Davis, has been playing well lately, but how much value can he possibly have in a clogged front court? Perhaps they're stashing him in case a Zach Randolph deal becomes imminent, but otherwise its hard to see him getting more than 20 or so minutes a night. He'll be a nice backup, but hardly a game-changing force unless he improves even more and earns more time.
The Grizzlies were already under that tax with Gay this season, and they were damn near dominant with him, at least until the trade rumors gained steam. Furthermore, head coach Lionel Hollins openly lobbied for the team to keep Gay for this season. Instead, he was shipped out, and one has to think his teammates are disheartened. It sure looked that way last night against Oklahoma City. Chemistry is an incredibly valuable commodity in the NBA; just look at where the Lakers are without it. A disjointed team and an understandably-upset coach is not a recipe for success. This could be the move that shifts the Grizzlies from dark horse contenders to the treadmill, and for that they are the de facto losers of this trade until further notice.
Note: All statistical data is courtesy of http://www.basketball-reference.com/ and http://www.nba.com/.
