If it felt a little strange reading that title, just know that it felt ten times weirder actually typing it out.
The Knicks are contenders again, for the first time since the turn of the 21st century. This comes after a disappointing decade-plus stretch where the words "Knicks" and "contenders" were practically oxymorons. The recent success of the team has been long awaited by Knicks fans, who have had to cope with a front-office that made roster-decisions ranging from puzzling-to-idiotic in years prior (i.e. Steve Francis, Eddy Curry). But now, after a decade that can be defined as nothing less than turbulent, the Knicks have somehow stumbled into what they've been searching for all along: a legitimate shot at playing for a championship.
If fact, I would be genuinely surprised if they didn't at least make it to the Eastern Conference Finals. And this is coming from a 100% non-Knick fan (Go Bulls!). As much as I'd love to see my main man D-Rose come back in time for the playoffs and wipe the floor with the Knicks on his way to the ECF's, I don't see it happening that way. Not this season at least. There's not enough time for the team to gel and resemble the dominant squad from last year (not to mention the Bench Mob got completely dismantled). With the Bulls unlikely to be at full strength, I don't think any team in the East (save for the Heat) has the talent to beat the Knicks four times out of seven. Brooklyn has some players, no doubt about that, but they haven't quite found an identity yet and I worry about their defense, especially with Lopez manning the middle. The Celtics on the other hand do have an identity, but their legitimacy as contenders is questionable with a) two of their three best players over 35 and b) their eye-popping lack of offensive rebounding (last in the NBA). Other teams like the Pacers and Sixers have potential to be dangerous, but we won't know until their all-stars (Granger and Bynum, respectively) get back on the court.
The Knicks are currently sitting atop the Eastern Conference with a record of 14-5, half of a game ahead of the defending champion Heat. Anthony has been having a monster season, with averages of 26.4 PPG, 6.7 RPG, and 2.1 APG on 46% shooting. They're third in scoring margin (+ 7.63), have the second most efficient offense (ORTG: 112.2) and are first in turnover percentage (10.7%). Contrast that to last year's Knicks, who were eighth in scoring margin, had the 17th-best offense, and were 27th in turnover percentage. Clearly the Knicks have moved in the right direction. Here's why I think it's happening:
They're Taking Care of The Ball
As I just mentioned, the Knicks went from 27th to first in turnover percentage. That's astounding. Part of the improvement is due to the much slower pace the Knicks are playing at this year, ranked 24th in the league, as opposed to fifth last year. Part of the decrease in turnovers is also due to the fact they now have three competent pass-first point guards (Felton, Kidd, and Prigioni). Last year they trotted out an inexperienced Jeremy Lin, a washed-up Baron Davis, and the corpse of Mike Bibby to run Mike D'Antoni's point-guard centric system. This inevitably led to tons of turnovers and just overall confusion on the offensive end. With their new free-agent haul of point guards, the Knicks have finally brought some experience and stability to the backcourt.
Better Coaching
Coach Mike Woodson's system differs substantially from D'Antoni's, which has played to the Knicks strengths. D'Antoni never really had the personell he needed for his system to work (save for the half-season pre-Melo), so playing fast compounded the problem rather than helping everyone find easier offense. As good as Melo is, he was too much of a ball-stopper for the system and there was no Steve Nash-type to counteract him. It was like a square peg in a round hole. This year with Woodson, the Knicks are still playing through Carmelo, but they're taking their time rather than forcing up quick shots. Though the offense is a bit more iso-heavy, like it was in Atlanta during Woodson's stint, that's where Melo is at his best. He now has the freedom to take his time and methodically break down opposing defenses. Anthony's transition to power forward has undoubtedly helped maximize this iso-style as well; now he's a mismatch almost every night. To Melo's credit, he's also done a better job of establishing deep position and trusting his teammates when the double-teams inevitably come. In Mike Woodson, the Knicks now have a coach that can maximize Carmelo's strengths.
Veteran Leadership
I was pretty skeptical when I saw the Knicks free-agent haul, which included five players over the age of 35. But despite being the oldest team in NBA history, the Knicks are thriving due to some much needed veteran leadership. Jason Kidd is at the center of it all, bringing to the table a championship pedigree and a basketball IQ that's through the roof. His steady presence at the point guard position has helped the Knicks more than his stat line would ever indicate. He simply knows how to keep the ball moving and hit people in their favorite spots. Despite his obvious athletic decline, Kidd is still among the best at pushing the fast break and can defend admirably (as long as he isn't on a super-quick PG). His smart, team-first play is contagious, inspiring even the most imprudent Knicks (like JR Smith) to hustle and make the extra pass. Having such an well-respected and intelligent player on the court does wonders for a team that is talented-yet-troubled like the Knicks have been the past few seasons.
And let's not forget the Knicks other vets either, such as Kurt Thomas and Rasheed Wallace. Although their box-score contributions are often minimal, they add a different dimension that I'm not sure this team ever had before: toughness. NBA players don't get more physical than those two. Their presence, even if it's on the end of the bench, is motivational for the younger Knicks and will help them when the going gets tough. And if/when the time comes for them to play, they'll give you six hard fouls and savvy perimeter shooting in addition to scrappy interior play.
Red-Hot 3-PT Shooting
The Knicks lead the league in three-pointers made and attempted, and they've been shooting it at a superb 41%, good for third in the NBA. Last year they shot less impressively at just under 34%, which had them at 21st in the league. Though a couple players are shooting above their career averages (think Ronnie Brewer), their sudden hot shooting doesn't seem to be a fluke. All of the Knicks outside looks have come from precise ball movement and fantastic spacing, which we can reasonably expect to continue. Unlike their D'Antoni teams, they now have more than a half-dozen shooters to surround Melo with (who leads team in 3PT% himself). Novak, Kidd, Smith, Felton, and Brewer all shoot 38%+. When Melo gets the room to operate in his favorite spots, namely the high-post, he can do damage very quickly by scoring with a variety of powerful drives and sneaky jumpers. This opens up the three-point barrages from the aforementioned shooters. It's a win-win for the Knicks, and the main reason their offense has been clicking so well. They finally have the right pieces around their superstar on the offensive end.
With these trends in mind, it's important for me to note that the Knicks defense has actually regressed from fifth last year to 13th this year. But a deeper look into the numbers doesn't show anything that's overly troubling. The Knicks have forced roughly the same number of turnovers-per-game this year and allowed a nearly identical FG%. Additionally, their best perimeter defender Iman Shumpert has been out all year with a torn ACL. They're only giving up about 2 more points per 100 possessions, all the while scoring about 8 more in the same interval. These stats plus the fact that they still have the reigning Defensive Player of the Year on their side prevent me from believing the Knicks D actually got that much worse. I'd expect them to move into to the top 10 as the season goes on.
One large question still lingers for the Knicks: how will Amar'e Stoudemire's return affect them? In the past he and Carmelo have had their struggles while playing together. Amar'e can just never quite get it going with Carmelo constantly occupying the same space and having the ball in his hands. Is there any hope short of a trade?
Well, that's a whole other conversation. But in short I don't think Amar'e will significantly hurt the Knicks because a) Amar'e has stated that he'll be fine with coming off the bench (at least at first), b) he will be reunited with Felton, with whom he played phenomenally in 2010, and c) the Knicks now have veterans that spread the wealth and know how to win. No longer will STAT be forced to isolate from 18-feet and get his own shot in a stagnant offense. Instead he'll be able to blend with an unselfish team that will (hopefully) make concerted efforts to get him the ball in the paint. As long as the Knicks keep doing what they've done, it'll take more than an underperforming Amar'e to take them off track. Bringing back Shumpert and his defensive prowess later in the year will just be icing on the cake.
To the Eastern Conference Finals they go?
