Fresh off of a 27-win season, the Pelicans are looking to improve by leaps and bounds in spite of the potentially historic draft that awaits them next year. The main force pushing the Pelicans to get better fast is owner Tom Benson, who acquired the team in 2012. It's easy to see why they'd forgo tanking though, considering they just went through a re-brand and are trying to generate some buzz after a couple of uneventful seasons post-Chris Paul.
But still, traditional NBA logic says that the worst place you can be is in the middle. These so-called "treadmill" teams (think Atlanta Hawks) finish every year with a decent enough record, but almost never have a chance of seeing the conference finals. Sure, making the playoffs is great for a number of reasons, but being a middling playoff team also means that you aren't going to get a high draft pick, which is where most superstar players are nabbed. Of course there's free agency, but there are only so many stars that actually become available each year, and then you need cap space and other good players to entice them. Unless a team already has a superstar or two, missing the playoffs for a chance to get a top pick is usually the preferred move.
The Pelicans got their top pick in 2012 in Anthony Davis aka "The Brow," but there are still questions as to whether or not he can become a legitimate superstar. I think most can agree that he's already a very good player, and he will be in the future as long as he stays healthy, but the Pelicans could surely use another high draft pick, especially since this years draft class was relatively dull in terms of top-tier talent. Nerlens Noel surprisingly slipped to the their draft slot despite being hyped as the likely number one pick, but his skill set, not to mention his ACL injury, would likely turn out to be an imperfect fit in New Orleans. But instead of holding onto Noel to see what he has and allowing themselves to have another losing season, the Pelicans pulled off a surprising deal to net them All-Star point guard Jrue Holiday. Building on that, the Pelicans snatched up power-guard Tyreke Evans from the Kings, who famously put up 20-5-5 in his rookie season before regressing a bit in following years. Evans and Holiday will be paired with Eric Gordon in the backcourt, the talented-yet-disgruntled two-guard David Stern gave them in the Chris Paul deal. One of the casualties in this chaos was Greivis Vasquez, last years Most Improved Player runner-up and third best assist man. But while Greivis was very good for much of the year, Holiday is much more dynamic and was right behind Vasquez in assists. All of these moves are an overwhelming net-positive for the Pelicans, but is it enough to guarantee a playoff spot?Obviously we won't know until we see them play together, but right now it looks plausible. The Western Conference is incredibly competitive and it's going to be a dogfight for the last few playoff berths. Right now it looks like the Spurs, Thunder, Rockets, Clippers, and Warriors are definite locks. That leaves three spots amongst a bevy of quality teams. The Grizzlies, Nuggets, and Lakers are probably the next best teams, but the Timberwolves, Blazers, and Mavericks could also challenge for a spot. The competition will be incredibly stiff for New Orleans, and if they don't make it they have to give a prized lottery pick to the Sixers, which I'm sure is the last thing they want to do.
Whether or not the Pelicans fly next season (sorry I had to) will depend on how all these pieces come together within Monty Williams system. One of the glaring questions is how they will spread the backcourt minutes amongst Holiday, Evans and Gordon. Surely Holiday will start at the point, and Gordon will be the two, but this creates a bit of a logjam, as Evans himself is a natural two. Sacramento experimented with him at the three last season, but the results were lackluster and Evans was visibly uncomfortable. He has said he'd be OK with a sixth-man type role, but it's going to be difficult to keep him on the floor when both Holiday and Gordon are on it, which would be their most potent perimeter scoring trio.
When Evans is on the floor, Coach Williams will have to compensate for his lack of a consistent jumpshot (though it has gotten better) by surrounding him with shooters. Luckily, the Pelicans are well-equipped to do this. Gordon and Holiday are both solid three-point threats, and they have one of the best prototypical stretch fours in Ryan Anderson. Anthony Davis also has smooth mid-range J and has the ability to be a devastating pick-and-roll partner that opponents will have to respect. The Pelicans rounded out their roster with one-dimensional shooters like Anthony Morrow and Roger Mason Jr., who should get the job done in limited minutes. With these pieces in place, there seems to be enough shooting on the roster to keep defenses honest when one of Holiday/Evans/Gordon attacks the basket, which will likely be their go-to offensive strategy. While there are other concerns with this roster offensively, like lack of a post scorer, they shouldn't hurt the team too much next season. They scored at a league average rate last year before the Evans and Holiday acquisitions, who will immediately become two of their best three offensive guys.
On the other end of the floor is where the bigger questions lie for New Orleans. Last year their squad finished 28th in Defensive Rating, which must improve for them to sniff the postseason. Monty Williams is a defense-first coach, so that's a plus, but outside of Holiday and Davis the Pelicans lack any good defenders. Gordon is usually solid on this end, but he's been disengaged and injured in recent seasons. Part of their improvement should also come Davis gaining more NBA experience and becoming more dominant on that end (hopefully putting on a few pounds, too), but the rest of it will hinge on how well the lesser defenders perform as a coordinated unit. It's up to Williams to get them to play sound team defense without gambling or falling into bad habits like ball-watching. Another year of experience with this young roster should bode well for their defense going forward, but it's going to take a lot of hard work and discipline for them to be above-average in that regard, which will be crucial to their playoff hopes.
Although the West is anything but wide-open, the Pelicans have boldly put themselves in the running for one of the lower playoff seeds next season. Although it's unclear if they have pieces that can develop enough to make them a contender, they're much more talented than last year, and they did it without sacrificing their youth. Whether they make it or not, give it up to them for being interesting and at least attempting to make a splash instead of being content with another season down the toilet.
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